Thursday, February 21, 2008

SCOUTING COMBINE BEGINS TODAY

The 2008 Scouting Combine is the annual job fair for prospective new NFL players. For six days from the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, players are put through a series of drills, tests and interviews with more than 600 NFL personnel including head coaches, general managers and scouts.

NFL Network analysts providing daily reports on the prospects participating in the workouts. Airs live Saturday, Feb. 23 through Tuesday, Feb. 26 beginning at 11 a.m. ET each day.

NFL Total Access: NFL Total Access is on location from the Scouting Combine with news, analysis and interviews. Airs live Thursday, Feb. 21 through Monday, Feb. 25 at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Press Conferences: Player, coach and general manager press conferences. Airs live Thursday, Feb. 21, and Friday, Feb. 22, at 2:30 p.m. ET as well as Saturday and Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Dolphins have so many needs, its going to impossible to predict what the Dolphins do with the first pick of the NFL draft. I think the Dolphins initial intention is to shop the overall pick and drop down in order to acquire more picks. In recent years however, most teams do not wish to acquire the top pick because of the hi price tag of paying an unproven rookie $30 million in guaranteed money and relenting several draft picks. So if the Dolphins are successful in moving away from the top pick, they will be have to be willing to accept whatever the market is willing to pay.

Take for example, the value of the first pick and what a team would have to give up when using the NFL draft point value chart. Here is example. http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm

For arguments sake, let’s just say that the Dolphins trade the first pick and drop down 4 picks to the Oakland Raider. The Dolphins first pick according to the chart is worth 3,000 points while the Raiders #4 pick is worth 1,800 points.

Assuming that the Raiders have the 4th pick in each of the 7 rounds, and the Raiders gave up their picks 2,3,4,5,6,7 from this year, it would only equal 969 points which is still 231 points less than the 1,200 point variance in between the first and fourth overall picks. So the more value the pick, the less value this chart seems to have. I do not think the Dolphins will find any value with the NFL Draft Point Value Chart when shopping the first overall pick.

The Dallas Cowboys have been paired up as a likely candidate to trade for Miami for three main reasons.
1. Dallas is the only team in round one with multiple picks
2. Jerry Jones has a man crush on Darren McFadden
3. Parcells and Cowboys have a close working relationship and Parcells knows the Cowboys players very well.

I like the scenario with Dallas mentioned above. Dallas has some talented free agents that would fill Dolphins need. Perhaps Dallas will send the two picks to Miami along with OT Flozell Adams and either Marion Barber or Julius Jones. One of those RBs would be expendable because Jerry Jones would only move up in order to grab McFadden.

If the Dolphins are unable to move from the first pick, the most likely positions that continue to be mentioned are DT, DE, QB, and RB. You can argue that of the four positions, RB is the least of a need for the Dolphins, but because of McFadden’s is considered the most talented player in this years draft, the impact of rookie Adrian Peterson last year for the Vikings, Brown has missed games each year due to injuries, and he is coming off a major ACL surgery, McFadden will be considered by the Dolphins.

Minnesota had greater needs than RB last year while on the clock in the seven hole, but they took Peterson anyway and I don’t think anyone in Minnesota has regrets. A RB of Petersons caliber puts points on the board and will win games for Minnesota. Some former players like RB Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith have said he could be the greatest RB in the history of the game providing he stays healthy. And this is a copy cat league which is a big reason why Ted Ginn was taken by Miami last year. Cameron liked the diversity Devin Hester brought to Chicago so he attempted to replicate the success.

We all know QB has been a need now for a decade. The next new starting QB this franchise sees will be the 13th attempt to replace Marino in less than a decade.
''If they don't feel like quarterback John Beck is the right guy moving forward with, then you look at top quarterback prospect Matt Ryan,'' ESPN Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. ``I think Matt Ryan is the kind of quarterback that would fit what Bill Parcells wants.''

That might be true. Ryan has a solid frame and is smart, two of the same qualities that led Parcells to draft former Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Bledsoe with the first overall pick in 1993, when Parcells was calling the shots for the Patriots.
But what if this team does have faith in Beck which appears to be the case? And what if Ryan doesn't leave a $30 million impression, which is how much the Dolphins likely will need to guarantee him if they choose him first overall?

A defensive tackle or end is not a sexy pick to spend on the first round of the draft. I feel good about the strategy because it reminds me of Jimmy Johnsons very first pick of his career in Miami in 1996. Johnson selected stud DT Daryl Gardner with the 20th pick and 5th rounder Zach Thomas. If you ask Zach Thomas how he was able to lead the team in tackles during Johnson tenure, he would most likely indicate that because Gardner was able to clog up the offensive line and enabled Thomas to run free. Gardner was a key clog in the defense that Jimmy Johnson built over three drafts.

Another ability of the defensive tackle or defensive end is a strong defensive line can make a weak secondary look like a bunch of studs. On the contrary, I don’t care if your secondary consist of two Deon Sanders in his prime and another pair of Champ Baileys, if there is no pressure on the QB during pass plays, the receivers will have time to get open.

Plus a strong defensive line can make the NFLs best QBs look like under skilled rookies. Just look at the pressure inflicted upon Tom Brady in the Superbowl and the 2005 divisional playoff game when Indy hosted Pittsburgh. Both Manning and Brady lost those games because they spent all day on their ass and running for their lives.

Houston Texans selection of Mario Williams over Reggie Bush two years ago now seems like the wise choice.

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